Up, down, up, down is great for some things but not others.

You know we focus on quarterly data in our retail projections. Here's why.

These are some headlines on recent monthly retail data releases:

June data "Australian retail sales smash expectations" Business Insider August 4 http://www.businessinsider.com.au/australian-retail-sales-june-2015-2015-8 [1]

July data "Concerns over Australian economy as retail sales go backwards" ABC September 3 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-03/concerns-over-australian-economy-as-retail-sales-backward/6746828 [2]

August data "Retail sales in August..meeting expectations" SMH October 2 http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/retail-sales-rise-in-line-with-expectations-20151002-gjzpfv.html [3]

September data "Retail sales soar in September" The Australian November 4 http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/retail-sales-soar-in-september-abs/story-e6frg926-1227112003542?sv=6be6af23938aceeb8e1515c8b96b5f75 [4]

October data "Spending pushes retail sales higher leading into Christmas" ABC December 4 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-04/australians-spend-up-big-at-department-stores-christmas/7001828 [5]

All these headlines are reporting ABS monthly trend data, the data that is treated to remove short-term volatility.

Up, down, steady, up. Really insightful.

We prefer to take a step back and look at a bigger picture. Paying too much attention to every bit of data and not putting it in perspective is like trying to tell the time by only looking at the minute hand. So we focus on quarterly data.

We've been saying all along to expect a really good year end for retail. It's turning out that way (though we think that the September data is ripe for some revision down).

There are potential issues in 2016. There always are... that's just life. Still, we are more optimistic than most analysts out there seem to be. We expect even better results for the retail sector across next year.


[1] http://www.businessinsider.com.au/australian-retail-sales-june-2015-2015-8 [2] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-03/concerns-over-australian-economy-as-retail-sales-backward/6746828 [3] http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/retail-sales-rise-in-line-with-expectations-20151002-gjzpfv.html [4] http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/retail-sales-soar-in-september-abs/story-e6frg926-1227112003542?sv=6be6af23938aceeb8e1515c8b96b5f75 [5] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-04/australians-spend-up-big-at-department-stores-christmas/7001828