When we construct our forecasts for retail industry sales we provide
output in two formats: trend data and original.
Each has its merits.
Trend data shows what you'd imagine it to... an underlying trend free
of irregular effects. Short term fluctuations are smoothed out. Any
spikes in data are removed so as not to impact the bigger picture. For
example in retail, the time leading up to Christmas sees a rise in
spending and in employment too, as temporary workers are added to
rosters. These are short term impacts so would skew data if left in
and treated as being as structurally important as normal spending
patterns and long term employment figures.
Trend data shows the bigger picture and is best for supporting longer
term strategic decision making, like capital planning.
Original data is the pure numbers, not factoring in any trend,
cyclical or seasonal effects. This data counts all the irregular
fluctuations that arise in data records. This is obviously a short
term view so is more suited to showing the tactical landscape.
These numbers are better suited to immediate resource planning, like
short term inventory planning.
Our forecasts indicate a pretty uniform strong current quarter across
all locations, except for the NT.
In original format, the first quarter of 2016 is also pretty uniformly
negative, as expected spending not only slows after the Christmas
rush, but general economic activity dips as people switch to holiday
mode. Our trend estimates smooth this out and show a nice growth
pattern into at least mid-2016.
Check out an overview of our forecasts here:
http://www.zen-bus.com/forecasts and if you want all the details just
leave your details to request a free sample report.